🤖 AI DEEP AUDIT · HR 20 valid legs · 5 edges · 0 pitfalls cut

Overrides on the model: opposite-hand platoon-cold drop, AVOID-tier pitcher cut, sub-25 pitch-mix drop, single-game HR-count inflation flag, edge boost for elite pitch-mix + mismatch + 40%+ HR-game rate + GREAT wx + TARGET pitcher.

🎯 EDGES CAUGHT

✓ #2 Shea Langeliers elite pitch-mix 82, mix +8✓ #4 Casey Schmitt elite pitch-mix 97, mix +8✓ #5 Jackson Chourio mix +8, GREAT wx✓ #10 Christian Walker mix +5, pitch mismatch✓ #19 CJ Abrams elite pitch-mix 100, mix +8

⚠ PITFALLS CUT

none cut this slate

▸ 2-LEG PARLAYS Highest-edge pair — both legs cleared every gate, two different games.

AI #1 · 2-LEG combined +2310

1

Shea Langeliers

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+322

elite pitch-mix 82mix +8pitch mismatch

2

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HR O 0.5

+471

elite pitch-mix 97mix +8hot bat (40% HR-game)park-hand -2

2 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #2 · 2-LEG combined +1966

1

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+292

vs RHP mash (7HR/124AB .315)TARGET pitcher

2

Jackson Chourio

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HR O 0.5

+427

mix +8GREAT wxTARGET pitcherpark-hand -1

2 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #3 · 2-LEG combined +1592

1

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+215

no flags

2

Christian Walker

HOU · HOU@TEX · Kumar Rocker

HR O 0.5

+437

mix +5pitch mismatch30% HR-game ratepitcher demote -5

2 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #4 · 2-LEG combined +2671

1

CJ Abrams

WSH · WSH@CLE · Tanner Bibee

HR O 0.5

+487

elite pitch-mix 100mix +8

2

Luke Raley

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

HR O 0.5

+372

TARGET pitcher

2 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #5 · 2-LEG combined +1665

1

Byron Buxton

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HR O 0.5

+242

hot bat (40% HR-game)

2

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+416

mix +830% HR-game ratepark-hand -1

2 legs · all HR O 0.5

▸ 3-LEG PARLAYS Adds one extra leg of high composite edge; manageable variance.

AI #1 · 3-LEG combined +12599

1

Shea Langeliers

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+322

elite pitch-mix 82mix +8pitch mismatch

2

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HR O 0.5

+471

elite pitch-mix 97mix +8hot bat (40% HR-game)park-hand -2

3

Jackson Chourio

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HR O 0.5

+427

mix +8GREAT wxTARGET pitcherpark-hand -1

3 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #2 · 3-LEG combined +6531

1

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+292

vs RHP mash (7HR/124AB .315)TARGET pitcher

2

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+215

no flags

3

Christian Walker

HOU · HOU@TEX · Kumar Rocker

HR O 0.5

+437

mix +5pitch mismatch30% HR-game ratepitcher demote -5

3 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #3 · 3-LEG combined +9376

1

CJ Abrams

WSH · WSH@CLE · Tanner Bibee

HR O 0.5

+487

elite pitch-mix 100mix +8

2

Luke Raley

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

HR O 0.5

+372

TARGET pitcher

3

Byron Buxton

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HR O 0.5

+242

hot bat (40% HR-game)

3 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #4 · 3-LEG combined +25337

1

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+416

mix +830% HR-game ratepark-hand -1

2

Harrison Bader

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HR O 0.5

+974

hot bat (40% HR-game)mix mod -3vs RHP soft (4HR/76AB .145)

3

Brent Rooker

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+359

TARGET pitchermix mod -5vs RHP soft (6HR/103AB .204)

3 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #5 · 3-LEG combined +13204

1

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · HOU@TEX · Kumar Rocker

HR O 0.5

+310

vs RHP mash (9HR/129AB .295)pitcher demote -5

2

James Wood

WSH · WSH@CLE · Tanner Bibee

HR O 0.5

+316

mix mod -3

3

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HR O 0.5

+680

mix +8

3 legs · all HR O 0.5

▸ 4-LEG PARLAYS Long-tail — one cold bat tanks it. Mid-edge plays sprinkled in.

AI #1 · 4-LEG combined +39901

1

Shea Langeliers

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+322

elite pitch-mix 82mix +8pitch mismatch

2

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HR O 0.5

+471

elite pitch-mix 97mix +8hot bat (40% HR-game)park-hand -2

3

Jackson Chourio

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HR O 0.5

+427

mix +8GREAT wxTARGET pitcherpark-hand -1

4

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+215

no flags

4 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #2 · 4-LEG combined +42160

1

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+292

vs RHP mash (7HR/124AB .315)TARGET pitcher

2

Christian Walker

HOU · HOU@TEX · Kumar Rocker

HR O 0.5

+437

mix +5pitch mismatch30% HR-game ratepitcher demote -5

3

CJ Abrams

WSH · WSH@CLE · Tanner Bibee

HR O 0.5

+487

elite pitch-mix 100mix +8

4

Byron Buxton

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HR O 0.5

+242

hot bat (40% HR-game)

4 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #3 · 4-LEG combined +107146

1

Luke Raley

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

HR O 0.5

+372

TARGET pitcher

2

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+416

mix +830% HR-game ratepark-hand -1

3

Harrison Bader

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HR O 0.5

+974

hot bat (40% HR-game)mix mod -3vs RHP soft (4HR/76AB .145)

4

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · HOU@TEX · Kumar Rocker

HR O 0.5

+310

vs RHP mash (9HR/129AB .295)pitcher demote -5

4 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #4 · 4-LEG combined +86134

1

Brent Rooker

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+359

TARGET pitchermix mod -5vs RHP soft (6HR/103AB .204)

2

James Wood

WSH · WSH@CLE · Tanner Bibee

HR O 0.5

+316

mix mod -3

3

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HR O 0.5

+680

mix +8

4

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · HOU@TEX · Tatsuya Imai

HR O 0.5

+479

park-hand -1

4 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #5 · 4-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined +56715

1

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · MIN@CWS · Zebby Matthews

HR O 0.5

+284

pitcher demote -5freq demote -6 (rate 10%)

2

Andy Pages

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+442

no flags

3

Angel Martínez

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

HR O 0.5

+519

30% HR-game ratemix mod -3

4

Kyle Manzardo

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

HR O 0.5

+341

vs RHP soft (4HR/119AB .202)

4 legs · all HR O 0.5

▸ 5-LEG PARLAYS Lottery ticket. Entertainment value only.

AI #1 · 5-LEG combined +214705

1

Shea Langeliers

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+322

elite pitch-mix 82mix +8pitch mismatch

2

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HR O 0.5

+471

elite pitch-mix 97mix +8hot bat (40% HR-game)park-hand -2

3

Jackson Chourio

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HR O 0.5

+427

mix +8GREAT wxTARGET pitcherpark-hand -1

4

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+215

no flags

5

Christian Walker

HOU · HOU@TEX · Kumar Rocker

HR O 0.5

+437

mix +5pitch mismatch30% HR-game ratepitcher demote -5

5 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #2 · 5-LEG combined +436018

1

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+292

vs RHP mash (7HR/124AB .315)TARGET pitcher

2

CJ Abrams

WSH · WSH@CLE · Tanner Bibee

HR O 0.5

+487

elite pitch-mix 100mix +8

3

Byron Buxton

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HR O 0.5

+242

hot bat (40% HR-game)

4

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+416

mix +830% HR-game ratepark-hand -1

5

Harrison Bader

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HR O 0.5

+974

hot bat (40% HR-game)mix mod -3vs RHP soft (4HR/76AB .145)

5 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #3 · 5-LEG combined +340240

1

Luke Raley

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

HR O 0.5

+372

TARGET pitcher

2

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · HOU@TEX · Kumar Rocker

HR O 0.5

+310

vs RHP mash (9HR/129AB .295)pitcher demote -5

3

James Wood

WSH · WSH@CLE · Tanner Bibee

HR O 0.5

+316

mix mod -3

4

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HR O 0.5

+680

mix +8

5

Andy Pages

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+442

no flags

5 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #4 · 5-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined +278481

1

Brent Rooker

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+359

TARGET pitchermix mod -5vs RHP soft (6HR/103AB .204)

2

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · HOU@TEX · Tatsuya Imai

HR O 0.5

+479

park-hand -1

3

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · MIN@CWS · Zebby Matthews

HR O 0.5

+284

pitcher demote -5freq demote -6 (rate 10%)

4

Angel Martínez

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

HR O 0.5

+519

30% HR-game ratemix mod -3

5

Kyle Manzardo

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

HR O 0.5

+341

vs RHP soft (4HR/119AB .202)

5 legs · all HR O 0.5

AI #5 · 5-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined +156704

1

Shea Langeliers

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+322

elite pitch-mix 82mix +8pitch mismatch

2

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HR O 0.5

+471

elite pitch-mix 97mix +8hot bat (40% HR-game)park-hand -2

3

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HR O 0.5

+292

vs RHP mash (7HR/124AB .315)TARGET pitcher

4

Jackson Chourio

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HR O 0.5

+427

mix +8GREAT wxTARGET pitcherpark-hand -1

5

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · COL@LAD · Tanner Gordon

HR O 0.5

+215

no flags

5 legs · all HR O 0.5

🤖 AI DEEP AUDIT · HITS 16 valid legs · 16 edges · 4 pitfalls cut

Hit audit: drops opposite-hand .200 cold splits, 4+ cold games, L5 below .140 with no streak, pitch_mix below 25, park<40 + AVOID/TOUGH pitcher, K%≥30 with L5 below .250, opener-pattern starters. Edge boost for elite pitch-mix, hitter parks, GREAT wx, high WHIP/low K% pitchers, 80%+ L10 hit rate, streak 5+, team O/U 9.5+, TARGET pitcher.

🎯 EDGES CAUGHT

✓ #1 William Contreras streak 8, L5 .455✓ #2 Carlos Cortes streak 7, L5 .353✓ #3 Nick Kurtz streak 7, L5 .438✓ #4 Luis Arraez vs RHP .333, WHIP 1.51✓ #6 Andrew Vaughn TARGET pitcher, pitch-mix 100✓ #7 Casey Schmitt pitch-mix 97, WHIP 1.51

⚠ PITFALLS CUT

✗ #5 Teoscar Hernández opener pattern (avg 3.9 IP/start)✗ #8 Justin Foscue opener pattern (avg 3.4 IP/start)✗ #12 Brandon Nimmo opener pattern (avg 3.4 IP/start)✗ #18 Ezequiel Duran opener pattern (avg 3.4 IP/start)

▸ 10-LEG PARLAYS Core 10-stack — all top-edge legs after audit cuts.

AI #1 · 10-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 4.7%

1

William Contreras

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .45580% L10

2

Carlos Cortes

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .35380% L10

3

Yandy Díaz

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

HIT O 0.5

L5 .500vs RHP .308pitch-mix 81

4

Luis Arraez

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

vs RHP .333WHIP 1.51low K% 15park 37 (suppress)

5

Travis Bazzana

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

HIT O 0.5

80% L10vs RHP .316pitch-mix 86

6

TJ Rumfield

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

HIT O 0.5

L5 .438TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 78

7

Blake Dunn

CIN · CIN@NYM · Nolan McLean

HIT O 0.5

streak 6L5 .40080% L10AVOID pitcherK% 30%

8

Ernie Clement

TOR · MIA@TOR · Janson Junk

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .368vs RHP .306

9

Brooks Lee

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HIT O 0.5

pitch-mix 79WHIP 1.45low K% 16vs LHP soft .210

10

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .43880% L10

10 legs · all HIT O 0.5

AI #2 · 10-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 3.5%

1

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 100GREAT wx

2

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

pitch-mix 97WHIP 1.51low K% 15park 37 (suppress)

3

Troy Johnston

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

HIT O 0.5

TARGET pitchervs RHP .364pitch-mix 93

4

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

HIT O 0.5

L5 .350TARGET pitcherlow K% 16mix mod -5

5

Yandy Díaz

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

HIT O 0.5

L5 .500vs RHP .308pitch-mix 81

6

Travis Bazzana

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

HIT O 0.5

80% L10vs RHP .316pitch-mix 86

7

Blake Dunn

CIN · CIN@NYM · Nolan McLean

HIT O 0.5

streak 6L5 .40080% L10AVOID pitcherK% 30%

8

Ernie Clement

TOR · MIA@TOR · Janson Junk

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .368vs RHP .306

9

Brooks Lee

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HIT O 0.5

pitch-mix 79WHIP 1.45low K% 16vs LHP soft .210

10

Alec Burleson

STL · STL@MIL · Jacob Misiorowski

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .47190% L10AVOID pitcher

10 legs · all HIT O 0.5

AI #3 · 10-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 4.7%

1

Matt Chapman

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

streak 5L5 .471WHIP 1.51vs RHP soft .226park 37 (suppress)

2

William Contreras

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .45580% L10

3

Carlos Cortes

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .35380% L10

4

TJ Rumfield

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

HIT O 0.5

L5 .438TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 78

5

Yandy Díaz

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

HIT O 0.5

L5 .500vs RHP .308pitch-mix 81

6

Travis Bazzana

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

HIT O 0.5

80% L10vs RHP .316pitch-mix 86

7

Blake Dunn

CIN · CIN@NYM · Nolan McLean

HIT O 0.5

streak 6L5 .40080% L10AVOID pitcherK% 30%

8

Ernie Clement

TOR · MIA@TOR · Janson Junk

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .368vs RHP .306

9

Brooks Lee

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HIT O 0.5

pitch-mix 79WHIP 1.45low K% 16vs LHP soft .210

10

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .43880% L10

10 legs · all HIT O 0.5

AI #4 · 10-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 4.6%

1

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 100GREAT wx

2

Luis Arraez

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

vs RHP .333WHIP 1.51low K% 15park 37 (suppress)

3

Alec Burleson

STL · STL@MIL · Jacob Misiorowski

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .47190% L10AVOID pitcher

4

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

pitch-mix 97WHIP 1.51low K% 15park 37 (suppress)

5

Troy Johnston

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

HIT O 0.5

TARGET pitchervs RHP .364pitch-mix 93

6

Matt Chapman

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

streak 5L5 .471WHIP 1.51vs RHP soft .226park 37 (suppress)

7

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

HIT O 0.5

L5 .350TARGET pitcherlow K% 16mix mod -5

8

William Contreras

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .45580% L10

9

Carlos Cortes

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .35380% L10

10

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .43880% L10

10 legs · all HIT O 0.5

AI #5 · 10-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 4.1%

1

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 100GREAT wx

2

Luis Arraez

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

vs RHP .333WHIP 1.51low K% 15park 37 (suppress)

3

Alec Burleson

STL · STL@MIL · Jacob Misiorowski

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .47190% L10AVOID pitcher

4

TJ Rumfield

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

HIT O 0.5

L5 .438TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 78

5

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

pitch-mix 97WHIP 1.51low K% 15park 37 (suppress)

6

Troy Johnston

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

HIT O 0.5

TARGET pitchervs RHP .364pitch-mix 93

7

Matt Chapman

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

streak 5L5 .471WHIP 1.51vs RHP soft .226park 37 (suppress)

8

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

HIT O 0.5

L5 .350TARGET pitcherlow K% 16mix mod -5

9

William Contreras

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .45580% L10

10

Carlos Cortes

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .35380% L10

10 legs · all HIT O 0.5

▸ 15-LEG PARLAYS 15-leg — adds soft-flag legs after the core. Variance climbs fast.

AI #1 · 15-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 1.0%

1

William Contreras

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .45580% L10

2

Carlos Cortes

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .35380% L10

3

Yandy Díaz

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

HIT O 0.5

L5 .500vs RHP .308pitch-mix 81

4

Luis Arraez

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

vs RHP .333WHIP 1.51low K% 15park 37 (suppress)

5

Travis Bazzana

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

HIT O 0.5

80% L10vs RHP .316pitch-mix 86

6

TJ Rumfield

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

HIT O 0.5

L5 .438TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 78

7

Blake Dunn

CIN · CIN@NYM · Nolan McLean

HIT O 0.5

streak 6L5 .40080% L10AVOID pitcherK% 30%

8

Ernie Clement

TOR · MIA@TOR · Janson Junk

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .368vs RHP .306

9

Brooks Lee

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HIT O 0.5

pitch-mix 79WHIP 1.45low K% 16vs LHP soft .210

10

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .43880% L10

11

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 100GREAT wx

12

Alec Burleson

STL · STL@MIL · Jacob Misiorowski

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .47190% L10AVOID pitcher

13

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

pitch-mix 97WHIP 1.51low K% 15park 37 (suppress)

14

Troy Johnston

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

HIT O 0.5

TARGET pitchervs RHP .364pitch-mix 93

15

Matt Chapman

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

streak 5L5 .471WHIP 1.51vs RHP soft .226park 37 (suppress)

15 legs · all HIT O 0.5

AI #2 · 15-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 0.9%

1

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

HIT O 0.5

L5 .350TARGET pitcherlow K% 16mix mod -5

2

William Contreras

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .45580% L10

3

Yandy Díaz

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

HIT O 0.5

L5 .500vs RHP .308pitch-mix 81

4

Luis Arraez

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

vs RHP .333WHIP 1.51low K% 15park 37 (suppress)

5

Travis Bazzana

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

HIT O 0.5

80% L10vs RHP .316pitch-mix 86

6

TJ Rumfield

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

HIT O 0.5

L5 .438TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 78

7

Blake Dunn

CIN · CIN@NYM · Nolan McLean

HIT O 0.5

streak 6L5 .40080% L10AVOID pitcherK% 30%

8

Ernie Clement

TOR · MIA@TOR · Janson Junk

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .368vs RHP .306

9

Brooks Lee

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

HIT O 0.5

pitch-mix 79WHIP 1.45low K% 16vs LHP soft .210

10

Carlos Cortes

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .35380% L10

11

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

HIT O 0.5

streak 7L5 .43880% L10

12

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

HIT O 0.5

TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 100GREAT wx

13

Alec Burleson

STL · STL@MIL · Jacob Misiorowski

HIT O 0.5

streak 8L5 .47190% L10AVOID pitcher

14

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

HIT O 0.5

pitch-mix 97WHIP 1.51low K% 15park 37 (suppress)

15

Troy Johnston

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

HIT O 0.5

TARGET pitchervs RHP .364pitch-mix 93

15 legs · all HIT O 0.5

▸ 20-LEG PARLAYS 20-leg — basically the whole valid pool. Lottery only.

Only 16 valid legs — can't build a 20-leg parlay.

🤖 AI DEEP AUDIT · H+R+RBI 14 valid legs · 14 edges · 6 pitfalls cut

H+R+RBI audit: same as Hits plus drop batting-order 8+ (low AB ceiling). Edge boost adds batting #1-4 promotion. All park/wx/pitch-mix/pitcher-K-WHIP/opener pitfalls active here too.

🎯 EDGES CAUGHT

✓ #1 William Contreras streak 8, L5 .455✓ #2 Luis Arraez 90% L10, bat #2✓ #4 Carlos Cortes streak 7, L5 .353✓ #5 Nick Kurtz streak 7, L5 .438✓ #7 Byron Buxton 90% L10, bat #1✓ #8 Casey Schmitt 80% L10, bat #3

⚠ PITFALLS CUT

✗ #3 Shohei Ohtani opener pattern (avg 3.9 IP/start)✗ #6 Justin Foscue opener pattern (avg 3.4 IP/start)✗ #9 Teoscar Hernández opener pattern (avg 3.9 IP/start)✗ #10 Corbin Carroll park 37 + AVOID pitcher✗ #15 Ketel Marte park 37 + AVOID pitcher✗ #19 Brandon Nimmo opener pattern (avg 3.4 IP/start)

▸ 10-LEG PARLAYS Core 10-stack — all top-edge legs after audit cuts.

AI #1 · 10-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 13.2%

1

Carlos Cortes

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .35380% L10

2

William Contreras

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 8L5 .45590% L10

3

Luis Arraez

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

H+R+RBI O 0.5

90% L10bat #2vs RHP .333park 37 (suppress)

4

Yandy Díaz

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

H+R+RBI O 0.5

L5 .500bat #4vs RHP .308

5

Travis Bazzana

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10bat #1vs RHP .316

6

Jesús Sánchez

TOR · MIA@TOR · Janson Junk

H+R+RBI O 0.5

L5 .40080% L10low K% 17mix mod -3

7

Byron Buxton

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

H+R+RBI O 0.5

90% L10bat #1WHIP 1.45

8

Troy Johnston

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

H+R+RBI O 0.5

TARGET pitchervs RHP .364pitch-mix 93

9

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .43890% L10

10

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 100

10 legs · all H+R+RBI O 0.5

AI #2 · 10-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 8.8%

1

Junior Caminero

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .38990% L10

2

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10bat #3pitch-mix 97park 37 (suppress)

3

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

H+R+RBI O 0.5

L5 .350OU 10.0TARGET pitchermix mod -5

4

William Contreras

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 8L5 .45590% L10

5

Travis Bazzana

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10bat #1vs RHP .316

6

Jesús Sánchez

TOR · MIA@TOR · Janson Junk

H+R+RBI O 0.5

L5 .40080% L10low K% 17mix mod -3

7

Byron Buxton

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

H+R+RBI O 0.5

90% L10bat #1WHIP 1.45

8

Troy Johnston

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

H+R+RBI O 0.5

TARGET pitchervs RHP .364pitch-mix 93

9

Tyler Soderstrom

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

OU 10.0TARGET pitcherWHIP 1.55vs RHP soft .220mix mod -5

10

Carlos Cortes

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .35380% L10

10 legs · all H+R+RBI O 0.5

AI #3 · 10-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 13.2%

1

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .43890% L10

2

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 100

3

Luis Arraez

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

H+R+RBI O 0.5

90% L10bat #2vs RHP .333park 37 (suppress)

4

Yandy Díaz

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

H+R+RBI O 0.5

L5 .500bat #4vs RHP .308

5

Travis Bazzana

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10bat #1vs RHP .316

6

Jesús Sánchez

TOR · MIA@TOR · Janson Junk

H+R+RBI O 0.5

L5 .40080% L10low K% 17mix mod -3

7

Byron Buxton

MIN · MIN@CWS · Anthony Kay

H+R+RBI O 0.5

90% L10bat #1WHIP 1.45

8

Troy Johnston

COL · COL@LAD · Emmet Sheehan

H+R+RBI O 0.5

TARGET pitchervs RHP .364pitch-mix 93

9

Junior Caminero

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .38990% L10

10

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10bat #3pitch-mix 97park 37 (suppress)

10 legs · all H+R+RBI O 0.5

AI #4 · 10-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 9.9%

1

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

H+R+RBI O 0.5

L5 .350OU 10.0TARGET pitchermix mod -5

2

Tyler Soderstrom

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

OU 10.0TARGET pitcherWHIP 1.55vs RHP soft .220mix mod -5

3

Carlos Cortes

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .35380% L10

4

William Contreras

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 8L5 .45590% L10

5

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .43890% L10

6

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 100

7

Luis Arraez

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

H+R+RBI O 0.5

90% L10bat #2vs RHP .333park 37 (suppress)

8

Yandy Díaz

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

H+R+RBI O 0.5

L5 .500bat #4vs RHP .308

9

Junior Caminero

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .38990% L10

10

Casey Schmitt

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10bat #3pitch-mix 97park 37 (suppress)

10 legs · all H+R+RBI O 0.5

AI #5 · 10-LEG · ⛓ STACK combined hit-rate 9.9%

1

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · SEA@OAK · Aaron Civale

H+R+RBI O 0.5

L5 .350OU 10.0TARGET pitchermix mod -5

2

Tyler Soderstrom

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

OU 10.0TARGET pitcherWHIP 1.55vs RHP soft .220mix mod -5

3

Carlos Cortes

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .35380% L10

4

William Contreras

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 8L5 .45590% L10

5

Nick Kurtz

OAK · SEA@OAK · Luis Castillo

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .43890% L10

6

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · STL@MIL · Matthew Liberatore

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10TARGET pitcherpitch-mix 100

7

Luis Arraez

SF · ARI@SF · Merrill Kelly

H+R+RBI O 0.5

90% L10bat #2vs RHP .333park 37 (suppress)

8

Yandy Díaz

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

H+R+RBI O 0.5

L5 .500bat #4vs RHP .308

9

Junior Caminero

TB · TB@BAL · Kyle Bradish

H+R+RBI O 0.5

streak 7L5 .38990% L10

10

Travis Bazzana

CLE · WSH@CLE · Zack Littell

H+R+RBI O 0.5

80% L10bat #1vs RHP .316

10 legs · all H+R+RBI O 0.5

▸ 15-LEG PARLAYS 15-leg — adds soft-flag legs after the core. Variance climbs fast.

Only 14 valid legs — can't build a 15-leg parlay.

▸ 20-LEG PARLAYS 20-leg — basically the whole valid pool. Lottery only.

Only 14 valid legs — can't build a 20-leg parlay.

DINGERCAST

SCOUT REPORT